What global copper mining’s top tier could look like

The global copper industry is at a crossroads, with mergers and acquisitions reshaping the landscape. As green energy demand fuels copper’s critical role in electrification, these industry giants are positioning themselves to capitalize on future opportunities.

The copper mining industry has been abuzz with potential shake-ups in recent years. One of the most notable developments was BHP’s unsolicited bid for Anglo American, a 108-year-old mining giant, which dominated headlines in 2024. While BHP has since put its acquisition ambitions on ice, the ripple effects continue to reshape the sector, with key players repositioning themselves to dominate the future of copper production.

The BHP-Anglo Dynamics

BHP’s initial $49 billion offer for Anglo American was rebuffed, but the London-headquartered miner has used the opportunity to streamline its operations. Anglo has divested from Southern African diamonds and platinum, Australian coal, and Brazilian nickel, focusing instead on copper, which could soon account for 60% of its portfolio.

Had the acquisition gone through, the combined entity would have produced 1.9 million tonnes of copper annually, reinforcing BHP’s dominance. Instead, BHP is now investing heavily in organic growth, including a $10 billion expansion of its Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine, where Rio Tinto holds a 30% stake.

The Merger Mania Continues

Even without the BHP-Anglo deal, consolidation remains a hot topic. Talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto surfaced in early 2024, fueling speculation about the next mega-merger. A potential Glencore-Rio Tinto combination would be valued at around $160 billion, matching the scale of a hypothetical BHP-Anglo merger.

Combined, these mergers could control 16% of global copper production, with the companies listed in the accompanying graph already representing nearly 40% of the global total.

Key Projects and Growth Opportunities

• Escondida (BHP/Rio Tinto): Projected to peak at 1.3 million tonnes in 2025, with further brownfield expansion opportunities.
• Oyu Tolgoi (Rio Tinto): Expected to hit 500,000 tonnes annually by 2030.
• Resolution (Rio Tinto/BHP): A potential 450,000-tonne-per-year mine in Arizona could revive under favorable political conditions.

Glencore’s portfolio includes high-potential assets like Collahuasi in Chile and extensive greenfield opportunities in Latin America, including the West Wall, El Pachón, and MARA projects.

The DRC Factor

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to play a pivotal role, contributing significantly to global copper output. The DRC is expected to add over 200,000 tonnes annually by 2025, highlighting its importance as a supplier of critical minerals in an increasingly geopolitically charged environment.

The Wild Cards: Teck Resources and First Quantum

Glencore’s failed $23 billion bid for Teck Resources in 2023 underscores its aggressive expansion strategy. While Teck rejected the offer, the Canadian miner remains on a strong growth trajectory, aiming to produce 800,000 tonnes of copper annually, placing it among the top 10 producers.

Meanwhile, First Quantum Minerals, another Canadian firm, is recovering from setbacks at its Cobre Panama mine. Once back on track, its annual copper output could surpass Anglo American’s.